Products related to Uncertainty:
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Risk and Uncertainty for Civil Engineering
This textbook introduces the fundamental concepts of probability, risk, and uncertainty, and shows their relevance in civil engineering projects.With an emphasis on applied probability and statistics, the book aids students in developing an intuitive understanding of the methods to apply in practice. Drawing from real-world examples, readers are introduced to risk assessment and analysis techniques, enabling them to identify, evaluate, and prioritise potential risks.Examples are provided of how spreadsheet tools such as Microsoft Excel can be used to solve problems involving probability, and practical approaches such as Monte Carlo simulations and decision trees are explained in a clear, accessible manner, empowering students to make informed decisions under uncertain and variable conditions.The book also emphasises the importance of effective communication, equipping students with essential skills for working in multidisciplinary teams and with different stakeholders. Risk and Uncertainty for Civil Engineering serves as an introductory textbook for undergraduate students in civil engineering, as well as a useful primer for postgraduate students.
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Dimensions of Uncertainty in Communication Engineering
Dimensions of Uncertainty in Communication Engineering is a comprehensive and self-contained introduction to the problems of nonaleatory uncertainty and the mathematical tools needed to solve them.The book gathers together tools derived from statistics, information theory, moment theory, interval analysis and probability boxes, dependence bounds, nonadditive measures, and Dempster–Shafer theory.While the book is mainly devoted to communication engineering, the techniques described are also of interest to other application areas, and commonalities to these are often alluded to through a number of references to books and research papers.This is an ideal supplementary book for courses in wireless communications, providing techniques for addressing epistemic uncertainty, as well as an important resource for researchers and industry engineers.Students and researchers in other fields such as statistics, financial mathematics, and transport theory will gain an overview and understanding on these methods relevant to their field.
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Taming Uncertainty
An examination of the cognitive tools that the mind uses to grapple with uncertainty in the real world. How do humans navigate uncertainty, continuously making near-effortless decisions and predictions even under conditions of imperfect knowledge, high complexity, and extreme time pressure?Taming Uncertainty argues that the human mind has developed tools to grapple with uncertainty.Unlike much previous scholarship in psychology and economics, this approach is rooted in what is known about what real minds can do.Rather than reducing the human response to uncertainty to an act of juggling probabilities, the authors propose that the human cognitive system has specific tools for dealing with different forms of uncertainty.They identify three types of tools: simple heuristics, tools for information search, and tools for harnessing the wisdom of others.This set of strategies for making predictions, inferences, and decisions constitute the mind's adaptive toolbox. The authors show how these three dimensions of human decision making are integrated and they argue that the toolbox, its cognitive foundation, and the environment are in constant flux and subject to developmental change.They demonstrate that each cognitive tool can be analyzed through the concept of ecological rationality-that is, the fit between specific tools and specific environments.Chapters deal with such specific instances of decision making as food choice architecture, intertemporal choice, financial uncertainty, pedestrian navigation, and adolescent behavior.
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The Uncertainty Mindset : Innovation Insights from the Frontiers of Food
Innovation is how businesses stay ahead of the competition and adapt to market conditions that change in unpredictable and uncertain ways.In the first decade of the twenty-first century, high-end cuisine underwent a profound transformation.Once an industry that prioritized consistency and reliability, it turned into one where constant change was a competitive necessity.A top restaurant's reputation and success have become so closely bound up with its ability to innovate that a new organizational form, the culinary research and development team, has emerged.The best of these R&D teams continually expand the frontiers of food-they invent a constant stream of new dishes, new cooking processes and methods, and even new ways of experiencing food.How do they achieve this nonstop novelty? And what can culinary research and development teach us about how organizations innovate?Vaughn Tan opens up the black box of elite culinary R&D to provide essential insights.Drawing on years of unprecedented access to the best and most influential culinary R&D teams in the world, he reveals how they exemplify what he calls the uncertainty mindset.Such a mindset intentionally incorporates uncertainty into organization design rather than simply trying to reduce risk.It changes how organizations hire, set goals, and motivate team members and leads organizations to work in highly unconventional ways.A revelatory look at the R&D kitchen, The Uncertainty Mindset upends conventional wisdom about how to organize for innovation and offers practical insights for businesses trying to become innovative and adaptable.
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What is uncertainty?
Uncertainty refers to a lack of certainty or predictability about a situation or outcome. It is the state of not knowing what will happen in the future or the level of confidence one can have in a particular decision or event. Uncertainty can arise from various factors such as incomplete information, complexity, or randomness, and it can lead to feelings of doubt, anxiety, or hesitation. In many cases, uncertainty can be managed through risk assessment, planning, and flexibility in decision-making.
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What is extreme uncertainty?
Extreme uncertainty refers to a situation where there is a high level of unpredictability and ambiguity surrounding future outcomes. It is characterized by a lack of clear information or data to make informed decisions, leading to a wide range of potential outcomes. In such circumstances, traditional forecasting methods may not be effective, and decision-making becomes challenging. Extreme uncertainty can result from various factors such as rapid technological advancements, geopolitical instability, or global pandemics.
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What causes uncertainty regarding sexuality?
Uncertainty regarding sexuality can be caused by a variety of factors, including societal norms and expectations, lack of education or information about different sexual orientations, personal experiences that may challenge one's understanding of their own sexuality, and fear of judgment or discrimination from others. Additionally, the fluidity and complexity of human sexuality can also contribute to feelings of uncertainty as individuals may not fit neatly into traditional categories or labels. Overall, the multifaceted nature of sexuality and the diversity of human experiences can lead to uncertainty and confusion for many people.
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What causes uncertainty regarding virginity?
Uncertainty regarding virginity can be caused by various factors, including differing cultural beliefs and definitions of virginity. Additionally, lack of education and understanding about human anatomy and sexual health can contribute to confusion about what constitutes virginity. Social pressures and expectations surrounding virginity can also create uncertainty, as individuals may feel conflicted between personal beliefs and societal norms. Lastly, the subjective nature of virginity, which can be influenced by individual experiences and interpretations, can further contribute to uncertainty surrounding this concept.
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Embracing Uncertainty
'Susan Jeffers' wisdom feels like a precious gift. Her counsel is profound and meaningful in such challenging times.' MARIANNE WILLIAMSON'Original, courageous and brilliant!' WARREN FARRELL* * * * * * * * * *Nobody knows what will happen in the next moment of our lives.Whatever is in store for us, the only thing we CAN be sure of is that nothing in life is certain. And since we all fear the unknown, life's uncertainty can be a constant source of worry to us. But, as bestselling author Susan Jeffers explains, life doesn't have to be one worry after the next, a steady stream of 'what if's', and a constant attempt to create a secure haven for ourselves.In EMBRACING UNCERTAINTY she emphasises that an unknown future doesn't prevent a rich and abundant life, and shows how by enjoying life's unpredictability we transform ourselves from a position of fear to one filled with excitement and potential. Through invaluable case-studies, exercises and her pragmatic wisdom, Susan convinces us, above all, that life is exhilarating because of, not in spite of the uncertainty.
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Facing Uncertainty
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Productive Uncertainty in Science Education : Engaging Students in Meaningful Science Practice
Science is driven by the need to manage uncertainty—uncertainty about how to explain the world, but also how to represent the world in an investigation, what to measure, and how to convince peers to see what the scientist wants them to see.For children, uncertainty supports engagement with materials, more purposeful science practice, and deeper conceptual understanding, yet classroom investigations typically reflect little of the uncertainty that scientists grapple with.How can we move past cookbook science investigations and provide the support that teachers and students need for this more complex work?This book introduces a framework describing specific forms of science activity, shares stories of children engaging with uncertainty, and provides practical supports to help K–12 teachers deepen their science teaching practice.The text includes tools for building classroom norms, planning and adapting investigations, leading discussions, and designing student sheets and other forms of support.The framework, tools, and examples are drawn from research conducted in partnership with elementary teachers and instructional leaders and have been applied in secondary science classrooms as well. Book Features: A new way of building engagement and supporting science practice through centering uncertainty, an essential human and scientific experience. Inspiring examples of students engaging in science practices, developed with teacher collaborators. A suite of tools to support the design, adaptation, and implementation of rich investigations for the science classroom. Sample classroom dialogue showing how teachers can facilitate student discussions that foster and build from uncertainty. A companion website with additional investigations, real classroom case studies, and helpful resources and tools (investigationsproject.org).
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Reasoning about Uncertainty
Formal ways of representing uncertainty and various logics for reasoning about it; updated with new material on weighted probability measures, complexity-theoretic considerations, and other topics. In order to deal with uncertainty intelligently, we need to be able to represent it and reason about it.In this book, Joseph Halpern examines formal ways of representing uncertainty and considers various logics for reasoning about it.While the ideas presented are formalized in terms of definitions and theorems, the emphasis is on the philosophy of representing and reasoning about uncertainty.Halpern surveys possible formal systems for representing uncertainty, including probability measures, possibility measures, and plausibility measures; considers the updating of beliefs based on changing information and the relation to Bayes' theorem; and discusses qualitative, quantitative, and plausibilistic Bayesian networks. This second edition has been updated to reflect Halpern's recent research.New material includes a consideration of weighted probability measures and how they can be used in decision making; analyses of the Doomsday argument and the Sleeping Beauty problem; modeling games with imperfect recall using the runs-and-systems approach; a discussion of complexity-theoretic considerations; the application of first-order conditional logic to security.Reasoning about Uncertainty is accessible and relevant to researchers and students in many fields, including computer science, artificial intelligence, economics (particularly game theory), mathematics, philosophy, and statistics.
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How can one hide uncertainty?
One can hide uncertainty by maintaining a confident demeanor, using vague language to avoid committing to a specific answer, and redirecting the conversation to a different topic. Additionally, one can prepare in advance by researching the topic in question to have some knowledge to fall back on. It is important to remember that it is okay to admit when you are unsure about something rather than trying to hide it.
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What causes uncertainty about vaccinations?
Uncertainty about vaccinations can be caused by a variety of factors. These may include misinformation or myths about vaccine safety and effectiveness, lack of understanding about how vaccines work, fear of potential side effects, and mistrust in the healthcare system. Additionally, conflicting information from different sources, such as social media or celebrities, can contribute to confusion and doubt about the importance of vaccinations. Overall, a lack of clear and accurate information can lead to uncertainty and hesitancy towards vaccines.
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What is uncertainty regarding transsexuality?
Uncertainty regarding transsexuality refers to the lack of understanding or clarity surrounding the experiences and identities of transgender individuals. This uncertainty can manifest in various ways, such as confusion about gender identity, societal misconceptions, and a lack of education about transgender issues. It can also lead to discrimination, stigma, and barriers to accessing appropriate healthcare and support services for transgender individuals. Overall, uncertainty regarding transsexuality highlights the importance of promoting awareness, acceptance, and inclusivity for all gender identities.
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What causes uncertainty while driving?
Uncertainty while driving can be caused by various factors such as poor weather conditions like heavy rain, fog, or snow, which can reduce visibility and road traction. Additionally, unfamiliar roads or driving in new locations can also lead to uncertainty as drivers may not be aware of the road layout or potential hazards. Other drivers' unpredictable behavior, such as sudden lane changes or running red lights, can also create uncertainty on the road. Lastly, mechanical issues with the vehicle, like strange noises or warning lights, can make drivers unsure about the safety and reliability of their vehicle.
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